A type-2 fuzzy system model for reducing bullwhip effects in supply chains and its application in steel manufacturing
نویسندگان
چکیده
Supply chain management; Fuzzy clustering; Interval type-2 fuzzy hybrid system; Demand forecasting; Ordering policy; Bullwhip effect. Abstract The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and reduce the bullwhip effect in fuzzy environments by means of type-2 fuzzymethodology. In order to reduce the bullwhip effect in a supply chain, we propose a newmethod for demand forecasting. First, the demand data of a real steel industry in Canada is clustered with an interval type-2 fuzzy c-regression clustering algorithm. Then, a novel interval type-2 fuzzy hybrid expert system is developed for demand forecasting. This system uses Fuzzy Disjunctive Normal Forms (FDNF) and Fuzzy Conjunctive Normal Forms (FCNF) for the aggregation of antecedents. An interval type2 fuzzy order policy is developed to determine orders in the supply chain. Then, the results of the proposed method are compared with the type-1 fuzzy expert system as well as the type-1 fuzzy time series method in the literature. The results show that the bullwhip effect is significantly reduced; also, the system has less error and high accuracy. © 2013 Sharif University of Technology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
منابع مشابه
A hybrid fuzzy multiple attribute decision making approach for identification and ranking influencing factors on Bullwhip Effect in supply chain: real case of Steel industry
Bullwhip effect phenomenon is what reduces the efficiency of the supply chain. The effect occurs when demand changes in the supply chain face with a lot of volatility. So far, several key factors have been identified as causes of this phenomenon. Since the steel industry, is the basic one, its efficiency is of great importance. Therefore, in this study influencing factors on Bullwhip Effect in ...
متن کاملMeasuring and Analyzing the Bullwhip Effect in a Two-Product and Two Echelon Supply Chain Using Control Theory Approach
Coordination is very important in supply chain management and it is one of the main factors in supply chain profitability. Bullwhip effect is one of the basic obstacles to achieve coordination in supply chains and reduction of this phenomenon has an important role in supply chain harmony. The other side, costs of supply chain can be mitigated and customer service level can be increased by reduc...
متن کاملOn the Bullwhip Effect Measure in Supply Chains with VAR (1) Demand Process
In this paper, a two-echelon supply chain, which includes two products based on the following considerations, has been studied and the bullwhip effect is quantified. Providing a measure for bullwhip effect that enables us to analyze and reduce this phenomenon in supply chains with two products is the basic purpose of this paper. Demand of products is presented by the first order vector autoregr...
متن کاملThe Design of Inverse Network DEA Model for Measuring the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with Uncertain Demands
Two different bullwhip effects with equal scores may have different sensitivities and production patterns. As a result, the difference between these two seemingly equal scores has been ignored in previous methods (such as frequency response and moving average). So, the present study constructs a model of Inverse Network Data Envelopment Analysis, to introduce the relative and interval scores of...
متن کاملThe Impact of Forecasting Methods Combination for Reducing Bullwhip Effect in a Four-level Supply Chain under Variable Demand
Bullwhip effect in a supply chain, makes inefficiencies such as excess inventory and overdue orders during the chain. These problems can be reduced by appropriate predictions. Forecasting must be done in all levels of a supply chain. This research addresses the problem of optimal combination of forecasting to reduce the bullwhip effect in a four-level supply chain when demand is variable. For t...
متن کامل